Last Tuesday the 82nd Academy Awards nominations were announced. While the Academy usually snubs a deserving picture or performance, this year’s nominations are an all around solid bunch. The Oscars aren’t telecast until February 27th, but that doesn’t mean some predictions can’t be made for the outcome of Hollywood’s most prestigious awards show.
Best Picture
Black Swan
True Grit
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
Winter’s Bone
The King’s Speech
The Kids Are All Right
The Fighter
127 Hours
Inception
Last year’s decision to add 5 more slots to the Best Picture category allows crowd-pleasing hits like “Toy Story 3” and “Inception” to join the mix, but the high number of nominated films seems to taint the honor of the winning the award. However, every one of these movies is deserving of their nomination, and it’s nice to see some recognition for indie darlings “The Kids Are All Right” and “Winter’s Bone.” But it’s “The Social Network” that has been gaining the most serious buzz since its release back in October. The film is close to perfect in every aspect. It’s hard to imagine the Academy not recognizing the timely, socially relevant modern masterpiece.
Who should win: The Social Network
Who will win: The Social Network
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David O. Russell (The Fighter)
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Tom Cooper (The King’s Speech)
Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)
One of the biggest surprises in this category is the inclusion of Aronofsky for his role in directing a fearless and extremely fanatical tale of a ballet dancer gone mad. He is mainly known for directing cult indie favorites, so the fact that the Academy is recognizing his excellent work is hopeful. The other biggest surprise is the snub of Christopher Nolan for the mind-bending thriller “Inception.” As well as being one of the most ambitious films of the past decade, his direction both exhilarated and challenged the audience. The Coen Brothers stay in familiar territory with a third career nomination for their retelling of a classic Western. Cooper and Russell both put in exquisite work in their respective films, but it is David Fincher who truly went above and beyond. Every little detail, from a note next to Zuckerberg’s PC to the sound of the Winklevoss twins rowing crew, is obsessively crafted into perfection. Fincher, who has always been a greatly revered director from his work on such films as “Fight Club” and “Seven,” is at the peak of his career with “The Social Network.” If his direction of this film doesn’t deserve an award, nothing does.
Who should win: David Fincher
Who will win: David Fincher
Best Actor
James Franco (127 Hours)
Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
This is a race between two very different actors and performances. Firth goes for a second shot at the award after being nominated last year for his heartbreaking performance in “A Single Man.” He has been getting the best reviews of his career as the stuttering King George VI in “The King’s Speech.” Oscar co-host James Franco managed to do the impossible as he carried an entire film on his back. Franco is the only actor on screen in “127 Hours” for almost the entire runtime, and his likeability and charm make that 90-minute runtime feel like a breeze. Bardem’s nomination is surprising, if only for the fact that “Biutiful” has gathered lukewarm reviews from its very limited release. Bridges is great in “True Grit” but his award for last year’s “Crazy Heart” seemed to be the career achievement honor his work was leading up to. While Eisenberg’s chances of winning are slim, it’s his performance as Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg that catapulted “The Social Network” onto numerous “Best of 2010” lists. He plays Zuckerberg as a young man apathetic to the world around him, all the while trying to change it. By the end of the film, I couldn’t decide whether I respected the guy or wanted to punch him in the face. While Eisenberg will surely get more recognitions for his future roles, it will most likely be this performance that he and the real Zuckerberg will be remembered for.
Who should win: Jesse Eisenberg
Who will win: Colin Firth
Best Actress
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
The female performances that people can’t seem to stop talking about come from Bening and Portman. While the two entirely transform themselves to take on their respective characters of a lesbian mother and ballet dancer on the brink of a mental breakdown, it’s Jennifer Lawrence who truly gave the best performance of 2010. Her turn as a strong-willed and independent 17-year-old girl from the dirt poor Ozarks looking for her drug dealer father is striking in its naturalness and subtlety. Her rough nature is even more impressive when you witness the actress’s real life sunny demeanor. Her role in “Winter’s Bone” is a true breakout performance, and it won’t be the last we hear of her.
Who should win: Jennifer Lawrence
Who will win: Natalie Portman
Best Supporting Actor
John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)
Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
Every once in a while, an actor gives a performance that not only goes above and beyond the material, but also transcends the art of acting. Christian Bale does just that with his transformation into drug addict Dicky Eklund in “The Fighter.” While the advertising may want you to think Mark Wahlberg is the star of the movie, Bale shines as the most brilliant ingredient to an excellent sports film. His performance is simultaneously humorous and heartbreaking and, in my mind, is completely unrivaled this year. However, Rush’s supporting performance as King George VI’s speech therapist in “The King’s Speech” has been generating raves from movie critics and fans alike. Rush will be Bale’s only competition, but the Academy will most likely reward Bale’s incredible body of work with his first Oscar.
Who should win: Christian Bale
Who will win: Christian Bale
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
At first glance at this category, it’s natural to wonder why Steinfeld is even included. Her powerhouse role as Mattie Ross in “True Grit” is a leading role, through and through. She is in nearly every scene in the film and is clearly the protagonist. No matter which category she’s nominated in, however, Steinfeld’s performance is by far one of the best of the year. Sharing the screen with such big names as Jeff Bridges and Matt Damon, she more than holds her own, she steals the film from right underneath them. In “True Grit,” the young newcomer comes across as strong, witty and independent, all without coming across as an annoying child actor. Her role as a girl determined to find her daddy’s killer would be a challenge for a 40-year-old veteran actress, let alone a 13-year-old girl. Speaking of veteran actresses, the Academy likes to recognize longtime actors’ careers with an Oscar. Melissa Leo hit the peak of a long, lustrous career with her performance as a tough and controlling mother of a boxer in “The Fighter.” I expect the veteran to beat out the newcomer, despite how much the newcomer deserves the Oscar.
Who should win: Hailee Steinfeld
Who will win: Melissa Leo